Wednesday, December 7th 2005
Arnold, the Independent
In yesterday’s LA Times, Dan Schnur, a lecturer at UC Berkeley and USC, and a friend of BCR, posed an interesting question: Should Gov. Arnold Schwarzenegger run for reelection as an independent?
THE UNIQUE dynamics of the recall election had allowed Schwarzenegger to run from the center, helping him avoid a GOP primary in which his moderate social and environmental positions could have caused him problems with a right-leaning electorate. Running for reelection as an independent would allow him the same opportunity. State law would have to be changed to allow him to alter his party registration so close to an election. But leaders of both major parties would have a vested interest in persuading their supporters to approve such a change.
For California’s conservative movement, an independent Schwarzenegger candidacy would present its members the opportunity to support a more ideologically acceptable candidate. Could that candidate take 35% to 40% of the vote against Schwarzenegger and the Democratic nominee? It’s certainly more attainable than the 50% required in a traditional two-party race. Although Democrats would have to be wary of a centrist Schwarzenegger repeating his recall performance and attracting enough independent and moderate Democratic support to win reelection, organized labor and other party mainstays could support another candidate, one more strongly committed to their most important policy goals.
Arnold could very well win again, as an independent. However, since Republicans would no longer feel obligated to vote for him, the GOP candidate would actually be a contender in a three-way race. This would be a very nice set up for, say, Tom McClintock to ditch the Lt. Gov race and run for governor. In some ways, it would be like the recall matchup all over again: Arnold vs. McClintock vs. random Democrat. If Arnold can attract enough Dems, and McClintock holds onto the party faithful along with the conservatives and libertarians, we might have a chance yet.
Stephen Frank discusses the hypotheticals on his blog.
This sounds alot more like wishful thinking from the Democrats.
First of all, Schwarzenegger has always been a Republican and there is no chance he will abandon the party.
Next, this situation will automatically result in a Democratic victory. With McClinotck and Arnold fighting over the independents and Republicans, all the Democrat has to do is sit there with at least 40% of the vote and watch. To be honest, this sounds alot like the 1912 presidential election.
If you really want McClintock to be governor, then he should run in the primary and try to defeat Arnold there.
The Democratic party would love to be handed the governorship, but the GOP leadership would not allow this situation to occur.
Comment by Michael — 12/8/2005 @ 9:38 am