According to a recent article in the Politico, some strategists–Republican and Democrat alike, predict that–despite the strong odds against the Republican Party right now, McCain has a fairly strong chance at taking the Presidential election in November.

This optimistic prediction assumes that Obama will receive the nomination from the Democratic Party, which seems most likely right now. If a lawsuit against the DNC for representation of the Florida Democratic delegates currently under way succeeds, however, it might turn the tide. A brief description of the lawsuit is below:

http://www.salon.com/politics/war_room/2008/05/22/lawsuit/index.html

McCain’s chances would rely primarily on his wrestling away much-needed swing state electoral votes from Obama, which some pundits think the Arizona senator can accomplish by virtue of his numerous candidate strengths and Obama’s various vulnerabilities. McCain is a decorated war hero, a former prisoner of war, a straight-shooter who speaks his mind and stands by what he believes even if it is unpopular, a maverick who has agitated for change in Washington from the Senate floor for more than twenty years, and a pragmatist who is able to work with both sides of the aisle. Obama, on the other hand, is a left-wing ideologue who has for twenty years attended a church led by an anti-white, anti-American, conspiracy theorist who still believes–despite overwhelming scientific evidence–that there are genetic differences between whites and blacks which make their brains different, and who furthermore believes that the United States government intentionally infected the black community with the AIDS virus. In addition to his long and apparently deep relationship with the radical Rev. Jeremiah Wright, Obama speaks of bipartisan unity but has the honor (or dishonor) of holding the most liberal voting record in the US Senate. See here:

http://nj.nationaljournal.com/voteratings/

McCain could well capture many states normally up for grabs in election years, including Florida, Michigan, Ohio, Pennsylvania, and possibly even the traditionally Democratic California. I think this is achievable if voters see the true story of Obama: his staunch liberalism masked by his eloquent calls for unity, hope, and change, they will shy away from supporting him, and instead consider the more moderate, conservative, common-sense, and principled approach of John McCain. The key is showing the electorate the true Obama, while highlighting the remarkable personal journey of Senator John McCain’s life, a life filled with steadfast commitment to public service.

You can read the article on McCain’s potential for a “blowout” victory below:

http://www.politico.com/news/stories/0508/10585.html

So this is old news by now, but Rudy Giuliani announced his intended candidacy for President this week and was on Fox news on Tuesday I believe. I happened to turn it on and listened to some of what he had to say. I feel like he presented himself very articulately and well, especially on some of the more contentious issues for social conservatives, like gay rights, gun control, and abortion.

The two fairly clear sides are those who feel a more moderate candidate will split the Republican ticket, paving the way for whoever the Dems nominate, and the others who believe he (or another such McCainesque moderate) is the ticket to defeating Hillary. So far, some polls show Giuliani ahead of McCain, 34% to McCains 22%, followed by 15% percent for Gingrich, actually. This RealClearPolitics poll showed only a 5% lead over McCain, with the third pick being Romney at around 6%.

However, we all know that polls are polls, and whoever gets out of the Republican gate will still have to race the Democrat’s horse, although it likely won’t be a dark one. I looked (albeit perfunctorily) through some Google searches for some Clinton/Obama/Edwards poll numbers (or anyone else) but the internet wouldn’t give up it’s secrets to me easily. That and I’m lazy. However, something interesting I did find on Mr. Obama. It’s no secret that he’s got Muslim heritage, and that he attended an “Islamic School” when he was younger, nor is it secret that he has had brushes with drugs. You would think both would be equally concerning to voters right? This article highlights that the Muslim issue apparently interests internet searchers more. Of millions of Obama searches on the internet in the last four weeks, the top five searches had a mention of the Muslim connection, while none of the top 20 hits concerned the drug issue. Call it a concern based on the current war, ‘islamophobia’, or whatever you want, but it’s on American’s minds. It’s just one article though, don’t get all jumpy.

This should be an interesting race due to the speeded-up primaries and lack of any incumbents. New blood should be interesting though. So what does everyone think? Who will get the Dems/Repubs nominations? Will we vote for an African-American, a woman, or a religious minority? Should Hillary stop wearing the pants?

Yesterday at our BCR meeting, the board hosted an early Primary to help members sort out the potential Republican candidates. The format was statement, crossfire, and a final vote, and the results were interesting. Candidates to support included Brownback, McCain, Giuliani, Romney, and “Dark Horse”. Supporters for Brownback were non-existant (Because Fullmer wasn’t there), but the other camps were fairly evenly divided.

After initial statements and some crossfire, the trend of the evening seemed to be differentiating between representing traditional conservatism and defeating Hillary. Those in the Romney camp as well as half the dark horse-ers favored defending conservative principles, while some of the McCains and Giulianis compromised on social conservatism as a way to defeat Hillary (who actually got one vote during the evening).

Our primary had Romney win in the initial voting rounds and again in a run-off, but not by a huge margin. It was a thought-provoking discussion, and I was happy to see others are thinking similarly, as I found this morning. Right Wing News had a “Most & Least desired Republican candidates of 2008″ post where they surveyed a sampling of conservative bloggers. The voters ranked the candidates in a points system, and were given the following to select from, including any non-mentioned candidate:

Sam Brownback
John Cox
Jim Gilmore
Newt Gingrich
Rudy Giuliani
Chuck Hagel
Mike Huckabee
Duncan Hunter
John McCain
George Pataki
Ron Paul
Mitt Romney
Tom Tancredo
Tommy Thompson

The lowest scores were dropped, and the votes for “Most desired” ended up something like this:Â

14) John Cox (4)
13) Jeb Bush (5)
12) Jim Gilmore (5.5)
11) Ron Paul (8.5)
10) Condi Rice (11.5)
9) Mike Huckabee (14)
Tommy Thompson (15.5)
7) John McCain (19)
6) Sam Brownback (20)
5) Tom Tancredo (31.5)
4) Duncan Hunter (35.5)
3) Mitt Romney (43)
2) Rudy Giuliani (45)
1) Newt Gingrich (52)

Now I’m not just posting this to get back at the Romney folks from last night (I was in the Giuliani camp), but because the results are really interesting. Gingrich was one of our dark horses, as well as Tancredo. This may just be a result of internet-savvy people hearing more about the little guys than others, but maybe not. Now here’s what I’d like to do, if you don’t mind.

Please comment, of course, but list your pick. If you’re a Dem or an “other”, give us whatever analysis you’ve got on it. Sciency-types say that the outcome gets more “correct” the larger the population, and I’m curious.

The Daily Cal is reporting that voter turnout in the ASUC elections has soared this year, up over 4000 from last year. The rise is mainly attributed to the introduction of online voting, which more than made up for the apathy expected as a result of the perceived lack of competition.

The question remains: who will benefit the most from the increased turnout? Previously, there was great opposition to online voting, as it would change the rules of the game. Now that the dynamic has been changed, I won’t be surprised if things turn out differently from what people expect. Upset victories in the executive races? More independent and third-party representation in the Senate? I predict opponents of the status quo will be pleasantly surprised come results time.

I’ve wanted to have polls here for some time, so let’s make this the first official Patriot Poll: