Although he did not place great focus on it during the campaign due to its sensitive nature, the issue of the Guantanamo Bay detention center was among the first that President Barack Obama sought to deal with once inaugurated. Perhaps out of a desire to signify a break with the Bush administration, or perhaps out of genuine conviction, three of his first five executive orders, issued within seventy-two hours of being inaugurated, were on the topic of interrogation and detention policies for enemy combatants.

The executive orders halted the military commissions (Mr. Obama has since ordered them to resume proceeding in mid-May) that were trying several of the most egregious terrorists held at Guantanamo, including September 11th “mastermind” Khalid Sheikh Mohammed. Obama also ordered the facility closed within a year. The individuals held there were to be released, transferred to other countries willing to take them, or detained further in other US detention facilities. (It was unspecified whether these were to be on American soil or not.) Commissions to review the process were set up immediately.

To the discontent of some in the Republican Party, former Vice President Dick Cheney, known for his reclusive nature while in office, went on an all-out spring campaign in the media to portray Mr. Obama’s policies on detainees as ones that “raise the risk to the American people of another attack.” While many thought the criticism would not have much of an impact due to Mr. Cheney’s unpopularity, bipartisan opposition to transferring the prisoners to the United States mounted.

“Detainees who have violated the rules of war…need to be kept elsewhere, wherever that is,” said Sen. Ben Nelson, a moderate Democrat from Nebraska. “I don’t want to see them come on American soil.”

Senate Majority Leader Harry Reid was one of many Senate Democrats who agreed, removing $80 million intended to pay for the closure of Guantanamo from an appropriations bill. While some Democrats were unequivocal about their opposition to transferring detainees to American soil, others demanded, in what was eventually codified into law, a plan from the White House on how specifically they intended to close the facility.

The Detention Policy Task Force, instituted by Mr. Obama in one of his initial executive orders, was to present a report by July 21st, which could have satisfied, at least in part, the demands of congressional Democrats for a concrete plan. However, it was granted a six month extension; the conclusion of this window will coincide with the deadline established by the Obama administration to close the detention center.
The five-page preliminary report it did issue said little of substance, arguing that both the federal court system as well as military commissions, which have looser evidentiary standards than civilian courts, should be used to prosecute detainees, depending on context-dependent factors such as the nature of their crimes. It defended the legitimacy of military commissions, as presently constituted.

The Obama administration’s diplomatic efforts and popularity overseas has granted it some limited success in one of its key goals of its Guantanamo policy. A Bloomberg News report states that the administration has said that numerous EU countries, as well less obvious states like Chad, have either already accepted transferred detainees from Guantanamo or have committed to do so. A recent story in The New York Times showed several seemingly happy Uighers, previously held at Guantanamo, eating ice cream and swimming in the Atlantic off the island of Bermuda.

While transferring some of the detainees to other countries remains a viable option, many countries do not want to deal with the most dangerous detainees. The administration is unlikely to transfer them to allied countries like Egypt or Saudi Arabia where they stand a high risk of being tortured. Further, the United States wishes to try many of them and this process will not be completed before the January deadline; indeed, it is likely to stretch on for years.

One option that will be pursued carefully will be simply releasing some of the prisoners, when this is logistically viable. The Bush administration has done so over the course of the center’s existence. However, a Pentagon study reported by The New York Times has found that one in 20 of freed detainees are confirmed to have engaged in terrorism since their release, and one in seven is either suspected or confirmed terrorists. The Obama administration is likely to tread carefully on releases of detainees, as it does not want to be open to Republican criticism that it freed terrorists who later mounted attacks on American interests.

The language of the administration’s senior officials seems to indicate they are open to indefinite detention of detainees who can neither be tried by military commissions, nor by civilian courts. For example, Secretary of State Hillary Clinton expressed the administration’s commitment to “proceeding with the transfer of those who can be transferred, the trial of those who can be tried, and the continuing detention of those who pose a grave threat.”

Mr. Obama himself alluded to this prospect of indefinite detentions at his May 21st speech and a Times report released around the same time said he told others he was considering setting up a permanent system for holding those who cannot be tried. However, the legal justification for detaining these alleged terrorists indefinitely on US soil is much more complicated than holding them extraterritorially at a facility such as Guantanamo. Indeed, many on the left have responded with renewed concerns over the ability of the president to detain anyone as an enemy combatant without trial.

The issue of Guantanamo is no clearer than it was when Mr. Obama was inaugurated. On the contrary, the heady optimism of the early executive orders which seemed to guarantee the closure of the detention facility has been replaced with a cautious approach, as the outlines of the political costs involved have been seen. As time passes with no solution designed and the political elite’s attention having shifted to healthcare reform, the probability of Guantanamo closing by the January 22nd, 2010 is getting smaller and smaller.

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