The sum of all fears

How Iran threatens Israel and the world

By Toby Frankenstein
From the February 2006 Print Edition

One of our greatest failures throughout the 20th century was our unwillingness, and at times inability, to comprehend threats that faced this nation and the world. When Hitler outlined his plans for world domination and obliterating Jews in Mein Kampf, the world simply dismissed his book as the ravings of a madman. When Stalin was starving millions across Eurasia, the West embraced Uncle Joe as a new kind of liberal, ignoring the atrocities. When Osama bin Laden declared war on the West in the 1990s, the world barely even batted an eye. So while we know there are always bugs to swat away, it’s very hard to tell which bite might be lethal.

Today, we face a similar situation in Iran, yet the world once again seems to be unwilling to accept responsibility to prevent a nightmare from becoming reality. Iran, one of the world’s premier state sponsors of terrorism, is on the brink of acquiring all the necessary capability and know-how to produce nuclear weapons. No matter how one chooses to view the plethora of information on the subject, all rational analysis leads to one conclusion: Iran is working to acquire the bomb. From not declaring nuclear testing activity to illegally importing centrifuges, realizing the extent of the Iranian nuclear program is not rocket science.

And as Iran moves closer to acquiring this doomsday weapon, the world community fails to respond. While President Bush has repeatedly said that the nexus of terrorism and weapons of mass destruction pose one of the greatest national security threats, the United States fails to lead any sort of forceful coalition against Iran. The Europeans, led by England, France, and Germany, continue to negotiate and seem to delude themselves into believing that continued discussion will result in compromise. This, despite the fact that Iran has crossed every red line Europe has drawn regarding nuclear activity.

In addition to this nuclear crisis, the president of Iran, Mahmoud Ahmadinejad, has gone on a public offensive, calling for both Israel and the United States to be “wiped off the map” — the comment about Israel, though, garnered far more media attention. Iranian leadership has reinforced Ahmadinejad’s comments, saying that his remarks reflect the foreign policy goals of Iran.

We must act. Are we prepared to tolerate a nuclear-armed terrorist state with a stated goal of destroying America and her allies?

The possibility of a compromise on Iran’s program is unlikely, as Iranian leadership has called their nuclear program an “inalienable right.” Sanctions are another possible strategy to try to force Iran to live up to its international obligations. The Iranian leadership is not terribly popular, both at home and abroad, and debilitating economic sanctions could quickly undermine the Islamic Republic’s ability to govern and continue with their nuclear ambition.

Beyond sanctions, there is a military option, but before we charge into battle, we must understand the limits of military power in this case. Yes, a military strike would temporarily disable Iran’s nuclear facilities, but “temporarily” is the operative word. Iran’s nuclear program is spread out throughout 300 sites around the country, and many of these weapons facilities are placed deep underground or in densely populated urban areas, presenting challenges of access and collateral damage. Furthermore, once Iran’s major nuclear facilities become active and begin processing nuclear fuel, hitting them, even with conventional weapons, will result in a quasi-nuclear explosion, spreading radiation and nuclear fallout, exactly the thing we are trying to avoid at all costs.

In addition, any pre-emptive military strike will most assuredly invite an Iranian response against U.S. allies in the region, including Israeli and U.S. troops in Iraq. If Iran attacks Israel, the Jewish state will respond in massive fashion; Iran’s remarks mentioned above give Israel all pretext it needs to respond harshly. The start of a major war in the Middle East is the last thing America — or the world — needs as it works to build a stable and democratic Iraq.

At the end of the day, the military option against Iran fails insofar as it does not permanently stop Iran from seeking nuclear weapons. If anything, a military strike will redouble Iran’s efforts in an even more secretive fashion.

But we are here, and we are now. The world must act to prevent an Iranian bomb. History is filled with international villains who the world community failed to take seriously. The Iranian leadership, when they call nuclear technology their inalienable right, and for a world without the United States or Israel, they say what they mean, and they mean what they say. A terror-sponsoring nuclear power is an unacceptable reality in a post-9/11 world. That was, after all, one of the primary reasons for the U.S. invasion of Iraq. As concerned Americans, we must all call on the Bush administration to live up to its promise to do everything in its power to protect the American people.

Do I have all the answers? No. But we all must work toward that answer as best we can. The Iranian threat is real, and the price of inaction is truly incalculable.

If you enjoyed this article, please consider supporting the Patriot